In an email that he sends out to subscribers, a fellow blogger who is also more of an active player in Hawai‘i politics Gary Hooser, came out with a piece that suggests that a result of one Hawai‘i House of Representative race could spur a complete revamping of the chamber.
That race is House District 25, which right now pits incumbent and House Speaker Scott Saiki versus now three times challenger Kim Coco Iwamoto. Whoever wins in the primary election, which will be counted in about two weeks, will be the new House rep for the district.
PC: “Kauai Sen. Gary Hooser speaking about new legislation related to beach access” by Beach Access Hawaii is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.
If Scott Saiki wins, the current sense is that not much will change in the overall leadership or direction of the House, at least for the next two years. Saiki, being House Speaker for seven years and change, has faced no real challenge to his leadership in several years. He has, indeed, made his position almost bulletproof to any wannabe coup leader in the house.
Even Hooser admits this in his email but at the bottom.
However, that might all change if Saiki is removed by the voters and Kim Coco Iwamoto finally secures the win over Saiki after challenging him three times. Iwamoto would never just take over the speakership of the House, as that position is usually held by more experienced members who have been there much longer. However, it could disrupt the House leadership, potentially leading to the kind of “house cleaning” that Gary is talking about.
What does a house cleaning mean? Well, according to Hooser and Star-Advertiser political columnist David Shapiro, his removal would lead to a more robust handling of political corruption that has plagued the House for the last few years. Some of that corruption has led to high-profile arrests and federal prison sentences for its former members.
A “cleaning of the House” can also mean different things to different people, depending on their interactions with the body and its leaders. So, this thought may not belong to just one person, this blogger feels.
PC: PHwSF
So then, and the premise of this piece, is “So, what if’ Scott Saiki loses to Kim Coco Iwamoto, who is in charge then?” It turns out that the answer is a lot harder to determine than even asking the question. Because it asks “Who will represent the new leadership in the House?”
But first, a primer on “House Leadership”.
“House Leadership” consists of the Speaker, who is supported by the Vice Speaker. They work with officers selected by the minority and majority parties, such as Majority and Minority Leader, Floor Leader, Whip(s), and in the case of the Republicans, Minority Policy Leader(s), Assistant Minority Leader, and Assistant Floor Leader.
So, in the event of the speaker being defeated in the election, a new Speaker would need to be selected. Candidates (who are members of the House) would come forward, lobby, campaign, and eventually stand for election, with all members of the House voting.
Returning to the question of who would be that leader post-Saiki, this blogger sought out, in his circle, opinions and insights on the matter. Because, as both this writer and Hooser admit, there is no strong challenge to the current leadership. It is anyone’s game as to who that could be. As a layman, one could suggest that the current Vice Speaker, Greggar Ilagan of House District 4 could ascend to the Speaker’s position with the support of House members. However, in Hawai‘i’s current political atmosphere, that approach is far from certain to happen.
PC: “File:Kim Coco Iwamoto.jpg” by Linda Ching is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
Could it be that if Coco Iwamoto is elected, along with a few others that Hooser is supporting could “hui up” (combine forces) and be a pivotal block of votes for any candidate that checks off boxes that the group has in evaluating candidates? Sure…that is as good of a guess as saying the Vice Speaker will automatically take over.
That could be the same thing too for other groups of allied members in the House that are looking to pursue certain angles. Heck, there may be a group in there that is large enough to suggest putting in a “Saiki replacement” that will continue doing business in the chamber the same way as it is now.
The answer, therefore, after soliciting and seeing what others have to say about it, is that no one knows for sure who will be leading the House should Saiki lose in the Primary Election. As one observer pointed out to me, “There is no way to know.”
While the election will come down to which candidate the voters want, savvy voters should keep in mind that many are looking to either change up the House, keep it the way it is, or maybe have a hybrid of “some things change, some remain the same”.
But as for the wish that Hooser puts forward, stating that removing the current speaker would result in a thorough clean-up of the entire house? Currently, any decision made is a gamble with an unclear outcome after the election.
The final advice from this blogger – stay tuned, sit tight, and watch it play out.
By the way, voting continues, all ballots will be counted on Saturday, August 10. You can mail your ballot or drop it off at various Voter Service Centers where there are ballot drop-off boxes.
Politics Hawaii with Stan Fichtman has just been awarded first place in the “1-Person Features Blog” by the Hawaii Chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists on July 30, 2024.